CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES OF THE MOST POPULATED COUNTRY IN THE WORLD

By

Dr Chandrakant S. Pandav
Padmashree Awardee (2021),
Former Professor & Head, Centre for Community Medicine, The All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, The Iodine Man of India, President – Indian Coalition for Control on Iodine Deficiency Disorders (ICCIDD, New Delhi), India

In Collaboration with –

Prof. Rishi S. Bharadwaj
Professor - Integrative Health & Wellness, Peace & Happiness, Indian Coalition for Control on Iodine Deficiency Disorders (ICCIDD, New Delhi), India; Adjunct Professor – Symbiosis Skills and Professional University, Pune, India

Author Note

Indian Coalition for Control on Iodine Deficiency Disorders (ICCIDD, New Delhi), India

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Overview

India was projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country sometime later in 2023, according to the 27th edition of the United Nations' World Population Prospects, 2022. India has already surpassed China early in 2023 to become most populous country in the world. China and India, world's two most populated countries face a variety of challenges related to their large populations. These include issues like food and water security environmental degradation, and strain on natural resources and need for additional infrastructure. Overcrowding in cities can lead to poor living conditions, while overuse of natural resources can, apart from pollution and loss of biodiversity, may lead to life threatening events. Providing education, healthcare, and employment opportunities for such a large population can be herculian task considering the strained economies.

Introduction

Understanding population trends and anticipating demographic change are crucial for national development planning and for implementing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In accordance with the principles outlined in the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD), which was established in Cairo in 1994, the 2030 Agenda emphasises that people are at the centre of sustainable development. Without doubt, the ecosystem on which people depend and survive are integral part of such sustainable development.

Current demographic patterns are signal emerging difficulties in accomplishing the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), that are to be met by 2030. For instance, nations that are experiencing high population growth—the most of which are in sub-Saharan Africa—need access to adequate healthcare and education for rising numbers of adults including women and children. On the other hand, an increasing number of elderly people accompanied by a shrinking population size are seen in countries where population growth has slowed or halted, mainly in the developed countries.

The United Nations has been publishing official estimates and projections of the world's population since 1951. The latest twenty-seventh edition is titled World Population Prospects 2022. Estimates show a complete set of demographic data that may be used to analyse population trends on a global, regional, and national scale. This paper includes a synopsis of the most important demographic prospects for the second half of the twenty-first century and provides an overview of worldwide population trends with a focus on the years 1950 to 2050. 

The paper further identifies the opportunities and challenges for the India which is now most populous country in the world.

Climate change and other global environmental concerns like bio diversity loss, inequality and social characteristics that directly impact sustainable development should be taken into account while examining the connection between population and sustainability. Depending on the status indicated in the World Population Report 2022, the technologies available for addressing global environmental challenges and the demographic, social, and economic context in the country it can be stated that population increase may not be the direct cause of environmental damage, but it may nonetheless exacerbate the issue or hasten it.

Countries where a decline in fertility is creating an opportunity for a demographic dividend need to invest in human capital by ensuring access to health care and quality education at all ages. The opportunities for productive employment need to be created. Countries with ageing populations should take steps to adapt public programmes to the growing proportion of older persons. While all countries should take steps to combat climate change and safeguard the environment, it is particularly the duty of more developed nations—whose per capita material resource consumption is typically the highest—to put policies in place that separate human economic activity from environmental degradation.

The Worldwide Population Trends over a century

The population of the world has increased by more than three times since the middle of the 20th century. From 2.5 billion people in 1950, the global population increased to 8.0 billion people by mid-November 2022. Since 1950, the number of people has roughly doubled every 37 years, reaching 5 billion in 1987. After then, it will take more than 70 years for the population of the world to double once more, reaching over 10 billion people by 2059. World is presently at population of 8 billion in 2022.

Challenges and opportunities

The global population is expected to grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. Rates of population growth vary significantly across countries and regions. More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.

Opportunities

According to the theory of demographic transition, population increase is correlated with general levels of economic development. Population change is a key sign of a region's economic progress, social advancement, and historical and cultural background.

India is (and will continue to be for some time) one of the youngest countries in the world, hence there is a demographic "dividend" to be gained from the age structure of the population. The 'demographic dividend' results from an increase in the proportion of workers, specifically young workers relative to non-workers in the population.

By implementing progressive policies and programmes to offer the youth more control over their education, employment opportunities, and personal health decisions, nations like Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea have already demonstrated how the demographic dividend can be reaped to achieve incredible economic growth.

There are important lessons from these countries for India.

India has a fantastic opportunity to flourish, with the potential for ground-breaking innovation, thanks to the country's growing young population. The variability of India's population means that this demographic dividend window opens up at different periods in various States. Economic growth will result from population growth since more individuals can produce more goods. It will result in increased tax receipts that can be used to fund public goods like environmental and health care projects.

Since farming and industry have benefited from economies of scale, food production and manufacturing output have been able to increase even more quickly than population growth as a result of population growth. A critical mass of people can create a more lively society with a higher population. A wider range of cultural activities may be supported as the population increases.

The power dynamics influencing how nations, regions, and generations interact are closely related to population size. However, population increase and the demographic dividend is a two-edged sword that must be used with prudence.

Challenges /Concerns

The population growth theory by Thomas Robert Malthus in his Essay on Population (1798), made the assertion that human population typically increases far more quickly than the capacity of the means of human subsistence (especially food, but also clothing and other things derived from agriculture). Because population expansion will always outpace agricultural production growth, humanity is bound to live in poverty forever. Malthus theory almost ruled out SDGs of ending poverty!

Growing social and economic risks could come from an increase in unemployment as the number of people of working age increases. High population expansion has an impact on natural resource depletion as well. In the world, India will be home to one in every five people of working age. The problem is that there are not always effective workers even in large working-age populations. The lack of women in the workforce too limits the size and effectiveness of our labour force. Only approximately 30% of women over the age of 15 are working mainly for daily payments for work on farms and related business run by their families.

It is striking how few women work in manufacturing, transportation, and skilled blue-collar jobs. 9.4% of Indian women do not receive the contraception they require, which translates to 22 million women who want to put off or delay having children but lack access to a form of contraception.

The population in 65+ age group may experience rapid growth and a number of difficulties. Social security provision is undoubtedly a difficult task. The future governments' resources would be stretched by this if the tax collection system is not effective. Education helps to eliminate gender disparities. But gender disparity in education itself is a problem. Boys are more likely than girls to engage in secondary and tertiary education in India.

Key Messages from World Population Prospects 2022:

The world's population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down.

• The world's population is projected to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022.

• The latest projections by the United Nations suggest that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100.

• Population growth is caused in part by declining levels of mortality, as reflected in increased levels of life expectancy at birth. Globally, life expectancy reached 72.8 years in 2019, an increase of almost 9 years since 1990. Further reductions in mortality are projected to result in an average longevity of around 77.2 years globally in 2050.

• Following a drop in mortality, population growth continues so long as fertility remains at high levels. When fertility begins to fall, the annual rate of growth starts to drop.

• In 2020, the global population growth rate fell under 1 per cent per year for the first time since 1950. The world's population is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100.

• Given that most population increase until 2050 will be driven by the momentum of past growth, further actions by Governments aimed at reducing fertility would do little to slow the pace of growth between now and mid-century, beyond the gradual slowdown indicated by the projections presented here. Nevertheless, the cumulative impact of such changes could contribute to a more substantial reduction of global population growth in the second half of the century.

• Sustained high fertility and rapid population growth present challenges to the achievement of sustainable development. The necessity of educating growing numbers of children and young people, for example, draws resources away from efforts to improve the quality of education.

• For countries with continuing high levels of fertility, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly those related to health, education and gender, is likely to hasten the transition towards lower fertility and slower population growth.

Way Forward

To fully utilise the demographic dividend, the government must play a crucial role and make investments in young people's economic opportunity, health, and education. This necessitates future-focused and people-centric as well as nature protection policies that take into account population dynamics, education and skill development, healthcare, gender sensitivity, and giving the next generation rights to sustainably use and options.

India's budget, would rise, especially when it comes to early education and nutrition. India needs to boost the proportion of women in the labour force. It will be necessary to establish a new central and federal strategy to reform the governance for availing demographic dividend and population growth, migration, ageing, skilling, female workforce participation, and urbanisation.

Policy research on how to effectively deal with interstate movement within India becomes priority because industrial expansion is concentrated in certain area, particularly in coastal regions and the majority of our workers come from rural and urban centres. India recently went through migration crisis during pandemic. That underlined the need for better policies to integrate and support migratory workers in their new habitats.

We must create more reliable old-age support systems. Developing universal health care and long-term care systems, as well as strengthening the sustainability of social security and pension systems, are all actions that countries with ageing populations should take to adjust governmental programmes to the rising number of older people.